iPad becomes "iVe bEen hAd" upon purchase...

Watching the iPad become "unveiled" yesterday really got me thinking...these people at Apple are geniuses. Evil geniuses. The iPad is effectively a giant iPhone, but what is key about the iPhone is the monopoly Apple has on the app store and its stranglehold on the developers for it. If you want to develop for Apple's iPhone, you have to play by their rules, use their technology, and price based on their decrees. Deviate, and you cant play.

For now, they have given a fair amount of leeway to developers and creativity has poured out, but Apple knows almost better than anyone how to play that game. Give them a lot of toys up front, then start to cinch control once they are dependent on it for their livelihood. We saw how they have done that masterfully with the musical community and iTunes, and the Apps are the same thing. Sinister, but elegant and masterful too, like a spider stunning then slowly sucking the blood of its prey, keeping it just alive enough to aid in its own death.

My prediction based on what I saw is this. The iPad will grow an external wireless keyboard and a stand so it can be used like a monitor. It will quickly replace kiosks at points of sale and cash register types of computers in all retail stores. It will replace computers in schools as "apps" spring up that do every possible thing. People trust apple, and dont see a problem with its monopoly, and the government is weak on vetting these things.

Apple will then slowly phase out its desktop and laptop computers, OSX will disappear, and the iPad in various forms will replace it.

OS's are disadvantageous for software companies. They cost a lot to maintain and support, but can only be charged for once. You cant keep charging people for use of the OS, but you are expected to keep it working and shoulder the ongoing costs of maintenance and upgrades. All the while, software vendors can buy and sell their software and don't have to pay the OS maker any royalty for running their software on their OS.

The iPad and iPhone are an example of the end of this model. OS companies have finally figured out that this model is unprofitable and unsustainable, and are working to rebuild their OS's business models to give them better control over the revenue stream and make money on a transactional basis instead of in a one time license fee. Interestingly, Microsoft figured this out a long time ago and have been acting on it with the XBox/XBox live/Games for Windows, but are going to have a much harder time transitioning consoles to the areas of the market currently dominated by PC's because they have no path to convert a gaming console to a PC.

Apple, on the other hand, has established a perfect path, the smartphone to iPad to PC path. This is very logical and will, within a few years, push their technology in where PC's dominate, and likely also eventually encroach on gaming consoles, leaving sony, MS, and Acer type companies caught with their "pants on the floor".

Its a brilliant strategy, and my hat is off to them.

The future for Apple, and likely our world, is a utopia where Apple controls everything. Microsoft played their cards too fast, and got stuck on the anti trust thing, but Apple has managed to form intensely powerful monopolies while maintaining its "underdog" brand and keeping its perceived market share low, effectively allowing them to breeze past hallways once blocked by anti trust lawyers.

By the time we realize what's happened, Apple will have created a monoculture in the marketplace, and that is why we need to support anyone BUT them right now. Its very important for us as consumers to keep the PC afloat because it represents our power. Once we give that up, our ignorance, laziness, and desire for the convenient/cool will be our undoing...and Steve Jobs is counting on it. We'll end up with one device that does whatever makes the most money for Apple, not necessarily what is in the best interest of consumers.

I would like to add though, if the iPad totally bombs, then it will show that consumers are much smarter than Steve Jobs gives them credit for, and they'll have to come up with something that keeps the power where it belongs, in the hands of consumers.