Flash finally dies.

I was recently asked this: "...does iPad/Tablet delivery have a significant importance to your company plans?"


My posts have been all about flash up to now, but in the past 6 months I've experienced a shift and moved to "the dark side" of HTML for a number of reasons.




It started with a number of website examples demonstrating what HTML/Ajax/Javascript are capable of now, particularly when coupled with WebGL.  It wasnt at the level of flash, but the differences were subtle. 

THE SQUEEZE

Client / Server Communication
Ajax in particular was an eye opener for me, the ability to communicate subtly between a client and server without impacting the user experience was always a deal breaker for me and HTML, and Flash is particularly adept at it.  Once I really got to understand Ajax, it became clear that Flash's primary technical advantage was quickly leaving.


3d rendering
Flash is still a great 3d tool, but the technology is coming under fire for licencing fees that occur after 50K users, so its "light and flexible" smallness suddenly developed a big looming wart.  Conversely WebGL is getting better and better, as well as canvas 3d, CSS, and other alternatives are looking really good and getting increasing access to hardware support.


Developer tools/workflow
Flash's key strength has always been the ease of development - from idea to working prototype.  The iDE (integrated developer environment) tools for 10 years were without match, but Adobe has quickly moved to build on that and move into HTML/Javascript based technology as it quickly becomes capable.  Now we have Edge, Edge Reflow, and many non-Adobe based developer tools that collectively kick butt.

iOS
I had always thought flash vs html was about a rivalry between Steve Jobs and Adobe, and that could very well have been the case.   But blocking flash on iOS really accelerated the demise of flash on mobile, and eventually instead of fighting, Adobe rolled over and killed the player on Android. 




App Stores - Temporary Reprieve?
App stores provided a reprieve for flash in a philosophical sense, as one could still use it to build apps as well as desktop.  BUT, the App stores presented a plethora of difficulties for any serious development.  App stores simply have too much arbitrary power and no accountability to developers, and the fear (warranted or not) has disillusioned them.  The "long tail" of developers simply cant make enough money off the app given the massive dev cycle, red tape to wander through, and the chance your app will be summarily "denied" for some violation of a clause in the interminable and constantly changing Apple Developer Agreement.  This shows up less on the Android side, but so do the users.   Long story short, App stores are not a long term, sustainable market for developers.  They are a stop-gap (make hey while the sun shines)

Meanwhile, the model for charging for things on the web has changed too.  App stores tried to "control the flow of money" but thus, if you bought an app/service on one device, you couldnt use it on another.  Microsoft's answer was to try to own all the surfaces/devices...and this is quickly materializing as a case of doing everything badly instead of one thing well.  I'd sum up windows 8 that way after having owned an XBox, PC, MS SurfaceRT, and a windows phone and trying to get them to interoperate.   My PC now is much harder to use (thanks windows 8), my surfaceRT is collecting dust - as are all my tablets thanks to the Android Galaxy II phone I have.  So, as a business, I'm coming to realize that money/distribution of product or service flow needs to be controlled by the company/portal, not some third party, or they cant assume the risk of doing business...its a fundamental truth that will essentially kill the app stores.   

Finally there is facebook.  Id wager the little webbrowser integrated in the facebook app on mobile is an increasingly common means of browsing the web.  If you could dial your phone, access your contacts, and browse the web(as you can now) with facebook's app, all a phone would need is the facebook app.  Facebook doesnt need to have a phone, they could simply *be* every phone.  And is any phone on earth not going to support facebook?  I doubt it.  HTML thus works inside facebook's browser and means if you are building HTML based apps, services, or experiences, people don't need to leave facebook at all.  Since any site that allows login supports facebook login (except google and microsoft of course),  Facebook rules the web.  While google is wasting time ignoring facebook and making yet another dumb thing in their list of dumb things..."glass".  Lets see..."wave", "plus" , "buzz", "glass" etc. prove that Google simply doesnt get the web anymore.  Its not about a giant dewey decimal system, its about connections between human beings and their collective wisdom.  But I digress...

So Flash and really app stores, and every closed market/technology is literally getting squeezed from every conceivable direction by pure technological evolution - in almost every way.

As I've always said, if a technology came along that "did flash" better than flash, I'd jump on it.  In the past 12 months I think its come to pass, and so I've jumped. 

Flash was king, now its HTML/Javascript/Ajax.


I admit it, but I was right before, HTML wasnt ready.  Now it is, and I'm not an idiot. :)